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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 21 March 2015

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 5
  2. 8
  3. 14
  4. 17
  5. 20
  6. 33
  7. 18

JackpotNZ$2,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 177 of 1,357 under them

← 2015-03-14All recent draws2015-03-28 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed5 8 14 17 20 33 + 1829 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 March 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

58oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 62% of every possible ticket.

  • sum17th
  • odd50th
  • low95th
  • widest gap58th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread38th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 26 of each

521times
827times
1426times
1726times
20

Prize breakdown · 2015-03-21

  • Lines in play≈ 8.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3.7Mto 43k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 199lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 2.2

Where the money went

  • Match 654%NZ$2M
  • Match 415%NZ$571.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus15%NZ$541K
  • 3 other tiers16%NZ$607.7K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 2.2 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

26times
3330times

Every number was expected about that many times after 176 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (5, 20, 33) with the draw of 20 December 2014 — its closest relative in 176 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 March 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

97

The numbers add up to 97 — the 16th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

33 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$2,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus9≈ 13 by chanceNZ$29,507
  • Match 5402≈ 441 by chanceNZ$687
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,118≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$59.00
  • Match 417,867≈ 18k by chanceNZ$32.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus23,520≈ 24k by chanceNZ$23.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,118 winners, 1% more than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$2,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus9NZ$29,507
    Match 5402NZ$687
    Match 4 + Bonus1,118NZ$59.00
    Match 417,867NZ$32.00
    Match 3 + Bonus23,520NZ$23.00