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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 21 July 2012

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 13
  3. 15
  4. 17
  5. 26
  6. 31
  7. 40

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 38 of 1,358 under them

← 2012-07-14All recent draws2012-07-28 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 13 15 17 26 31 + 4029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 July 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

56oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 56 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 57% of every possible ticket.

  • sum23th
  • odd95th
  • low79th
  • widest gap48th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread50th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 6 of each

14times
1311times
157times
174times
26

Prize breakdown · 2012-07-21

  • Lines in play≈ 9.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.7Mto 47k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 203lines took a prize
  • Match 65 winnerschance said 2.5

Where the money went

  • Match 636%NZ$1M
  • Match 421%NZ$578.8K
  • Match 3 + Bonus20%NZ$547.7K
  • 3 other tiers23%NZ$618.2K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 65≈ 2.5 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

4times
316times

Every number was expected about that many times after 37 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (13, 15, 26, 31) with the draw of 19 November 2011 — its closest relative in 37 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 8.0% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 July 2012): 15 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

103

The numbers add up to 103 — the 22th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$200,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus29≈ 15 by chanceNZ$9,319
  • Match 5483≈ 489 by chanceNZ$582
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,365≈ 1.2k by chanceNZ$49.00
  • Match 418,671≈ 20k by chanceNZ$31.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus26,079≈ 26k by chanceNZ$21.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈9.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,365 winners, 12% more than the 1.2k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 65NZ$200,000
    Match 5 + Bonus29NZ$9,319
    Match 5483NZ$582
    Match 4 + Bonus1,365NZ$49.00
    Match 418,671NZ$31.00
    Match 3 + Bonus26,079NZ$21.00