In EuroDreams under the 6/40 + 1/5 · since Nov 2023 rules — 312 draws, 1 from 1–5.
59times drawn · chance expected 62 −0.48σ
6draws waiting · a wait this long: 33% for any number
5.2average wait between appearances · chance says 5.0
15longest completed wait · 93% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 59 times in 312 draws against 62.4 expected, −0.48σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 59 times in 312 draws · average wait 5.2 draws · longest completed wait 15 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 4 of the other 4 numbers; chance expects about 4 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 5. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 1/5 tonight whatever it did last week.