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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 15 May 2026

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 15
  3. 26
  4. 29
  5. 30
  6. 13

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 17% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,977 of 3,063 under them

← 2026-05-13All recent draws2026-05-16 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 15 26 29 30 + 1310 Oct 2026, 20:47 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 May 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

61oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 61 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 77% of every possible ticket.

  • sum63th
  • odd31th
  • low31th
  • widest gap34th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread24th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 382 of each

8366times
15391times
26407times
29395times
30

Prize breakdown · 2026-05-15

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£580.1Kto 94k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.14

Where the money went

  • Match 321%£120.4K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball28%£163.1K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball20%£118.3K
  • 5 other tiers31%£178.2K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.14 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

414times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 213 of each

13237times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,976 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (8, 15, 29, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 October 2021 — its closest relative in 2,976 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 59% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 May 2026): 29 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

108

The numbers add up to 108 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.0× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 54≈ 1.8 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball33≈ 24 by chance£250
  • Match 4415≈ 313 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball997≈ 795 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,848≈ 8.5k by chance£10.00
  • Match 312,043≈ 10k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32,629≈ 33k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball39,435≈ 39k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 997 winners, 25% more than the 795 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball39,435£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32,629£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,848£10.00
    Match 312,043£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball997£20.00
    Match 4415£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball33£250
    Match 54£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000