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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Tuesday, 21 October 2025

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 3
  3. 28
  4. 37
  5. 38
  6. 11

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 25% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,859 of 3,064 under them

← 2025-10-18All recent draws2025-10-22 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 3 28 37 38 + 1129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 October 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

37oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 37 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 18% of every possible ticket.

  • sum63th
  • odd31th
  • low31th
  • widest gap98th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread94th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 366 of each

2360times
3370times
28375times
37334times
38

Prize breakdown · 2025-10-21

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£435.5Kto 81k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • Match 317%£72.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33%£144.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball25%£110.2K
  • 5 other tiers25%£108.4K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

362times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 204 of each

11201times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,858 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 28, 37, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 1 June 2021 — its closest relative in 2,858 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 57% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 October 2025): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

108

The numbers add up to 108 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3, 37–38. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 1.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball15≈ 22 by chance£250
  • Match 4188≈ 292 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball577≈ 741 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball6,932≈ 7.9k by chance£10.00
  • Match 37,255≈ 9.6k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball28,859≈ 31k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,735≈ 37k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 7,255 winners, 25% fewer than the 9.6k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,735£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball28,859£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball6,932£10.00
    Match 37,255£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball577£20.00
    Match 4188£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball15£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000