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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Tuesday, 12 August 2025

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 21
  2. 29
  3. 34
  4. 36
  5. 38
  6. 8

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 31% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,819 of 3,064 under them

← 2025-08-09All recent draws2025-08-13 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed21 29 34 36 38 + 829 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 August 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

28oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 28 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 7% of every possible ticket.

  • sum99th
  • odd31th
  • low1th
  • widest gap12th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread9th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 361 of each

21371times
29371times
34375times
36342times
38

Prize breakdown · 2025-08-12

  • Lines in play≈ 1.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£482.8Kto 90k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 14lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.15

Where the money went

  • Match 316%£77.4K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33%£158.9K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball26%£127.6K
  • 5 other tiers25%£118.9K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.15 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

357times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each

8204times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,818 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 29, 36, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 4 September 2013 — its closest relative in 2,818 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 57% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 August 2025): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

158

The numbers add up to 158 — the 99th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 2.0 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22≈ 26 by chance£250
  • Match 4200≈ 338 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball665≈ 858 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,505≈ 9.1k by chance£10.00
  • Match 37,744≈ 11k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,781≈ 35k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball42,535≈ 43k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 7,744 winners, 31% fewer than the 11k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball42,535£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,781£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,505£10.00
    Match 37,744£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball665£20.00
    Match 4200£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000