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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 3 May 2025

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 19
  3. 26
  4. 33
  5. 38
  6. 7

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 33% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,762 of 3,064 under them

← 2025-05-02All recent draws2025-05-06 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 19 26 33 38 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 3 May 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

53oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 53% of every possible ticket.

  • sum79th
  • odd31th
  • low31th
  • widest gap67th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread86th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 354 of each

4365times
19366times
26367times
33356times
38

Prize breakdown · 2025-05-03

  • Lines in play≈ 2.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£985.9Kto 182k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.30

Where the money went

  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16%£160.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33%£328.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball26%£251.4K
  • 5 other tiers25%£245.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.30 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

351times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 197 of each

7208times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,761 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 26, 33, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 28 April 2023 — its closest relative in 2,761 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 56% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 May 2025): 4 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

120

The numbers add up to 120 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 53≈ 3.9 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball40≈ 51 by chance£250
  • Match 4428≈ 666 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,467≈ 1.7k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16,060≈ 18k by chance£10.00
  • Match 314,797≈ 22k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball65,754≈ 70k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball83,801≈ 84k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 428 winners, 36% fewer than the 666 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball83,801£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball65,754£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16,060£10.00
    Match 314,797£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,467£20.00
    Match 4428£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball40£250
    Match 53£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000