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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Tuesday, 22 October 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 14
  2. 23
  3. 27
  4. 32
  5. 33
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 8% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,651 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-10-19All recent draws2024-10-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed14 23 27 32 33 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 22 October 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

38oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 38 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 19% of every possible ticket.

  • sum88th
  • odd64th
  • low9th
  • widest gap18th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread14th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 340 of each

14314times
23329times
27337times
32359times
33

Prize breakdown · 2024-10-22

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£505.0Kto 89k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.14

Where the money went

  • Match 319%£93.8K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£158.6K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball23%£116.9K
  • 4 other tiers27%£135.7K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.14 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

337times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 189 of each

5198times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,650 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 27, 32) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 May 2024 — its closest relative in 2,650 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 October 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

129

The numbers add up to 129 — the 88th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 32–33. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 50≈ 1.8 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball32≈ 24 by chance£250
  • Match 4283≈ 310 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball865≈ 786 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,206≈ 8.4k by chance£10.00
  • Match 39,375≈ 10k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,727≈ 32k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,969≈ 39k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 865 winners, 10% more than the 786 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,969£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,727£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,206£10.00
    Match 39,375£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball865£20.00
    Match 4283£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball32£250
    Match 50£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000