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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 11 May 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 14
  2. 17
  3. 19
  4. 23
  5. 33
  6. 9

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 5% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,558 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-05-10All recent draws2024-05-14 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed14 17 19 23 33 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 May 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

51oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 51 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 49% of every possible ticket.

  • sum60th
  • odd89th
  • low64th
  • widest gap26th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread14th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 328 of each

14301times
17313times
19330times
23318times
33

Prize breakdown · 2024-05-11

  • Lines in play≈ 1.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£1.4Mto 154k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1 winnerchance said 0.23

Where the money went

  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball35%£500.0K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball20%£278.9K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball14%£190.7K
  • 6 other tiers31%£441.7K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1≈ 0.23 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

323times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 183 of each

9159times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,557 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (14, 17, 19, 33) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 9 April 2022 — its closest relative in 2,557 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 53% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 May 2024): 23, 33 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

106

The numbers add up to 106 — the 59th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 54≈ 3.0 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball37≈ 39 by chance£250
  • Match 4559≈ 505 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,458≈ 1.3k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,172≈ 14k by chance£10.00
  • Match 317,566≈ 17k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball55,784≈ 53k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball63,566≈ 64k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 1,458 winners, 14% more than the 1.3k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball63,566£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball55,784£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,172£10.00
    Match 317,566£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,458£20.00
    Match 4559£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball37£250
    Match 54£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1£500,000