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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 1 March 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 8
  2. 9
  3. 17
  4. 30
  5. 39
  6. 7

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 30% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,517 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-02-28All recent draws2024-03-02 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed8 9 17 30 39 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 1 March 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

73oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 73 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 98% of every possible ticket.

  • sum55th
  • odd64th
  • low64th
  • widest gap51th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread70th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 323 of each

8311times
9299times
17305times
30361times
39

Prize breakdown · 2024-03-01

  • Lines in play≈ 1.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£665.5Kto 124k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.20

Where the money went

  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball17%£111.3K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34%£228.1K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball25%£167.5K
  • 4 other tiers24%£158.5K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.20 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

311times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 180 of each

7185times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,516 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 30, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 8 September 2023 — its closest relative in 2,516 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 February 2024): 8, 17 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

103

The numbers add up to 103 — the 54th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

39 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 50≈ 2.6 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball26≈ 34 by chance£250
  • Match 4294≈ 443 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball989≈ 1.1k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,133≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,284≈ 15k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball45,621≈ 47k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball55,837≈ 56k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 10,284 winners, 30% fewer than the 15k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball55,837£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball45,621£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,133£10.00
    Match 310,284£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball989£20.00
    Match 4294£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball26£250
    Match 50£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000