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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 10 February 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 4
  3. 6
  4. 14
  5. 38
  6. 9

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 9% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,506 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-02-09All recent draws2024-02-13 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 4 6 14 38 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 February 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

18oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 18 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 2% of every possible ticket.

  • sum7th
  • odd1th
  • low89th
  • widest gap97th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread94th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 321 of each

2322times
4340times
6339times
14292times
38

Prize breakdown · 2024-02-10

  • Lines in play≈ 2.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£888.5Kto 159k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.25

Where the money went

  • Match 319%£167.0K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32%£285.9K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball24%£210.2K
  • 5 other tiers25%£225.4K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.25 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

314times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 179 of each

9156times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,505 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 6, 14) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 1 September 2023 — its closest relative in 2,505 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 February 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

64

The numbers add up to 64 — the 6th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 3.3 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball39≈ 43 by chance£250
  • Match 4426≈ 556 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,254≈ 1.4k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball13,800≈ 15k by chance£10.00
  • Match 316,701≈ 18k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball57,182≈ 58k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball70,052≈ 70k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 426 winners, 23% fewer than the 556 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball70,052£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball57,182£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball13,800£10.00
    Match 316,701£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,254£20.00
    Match 4426£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball39£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000