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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 18 October 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 7
  2. 32
  3. 34
  4. 35
  5. 36
  6. 7

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 46% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,440 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-10-17All recent draws2023-10-20 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed7 32 34 35 36 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

30oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 30 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 9% of every possible ticket.

  • sum97th
  • odd31th
  • low9th
  • widest gap98th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread59th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 313 of each

7324times
32330times
34331times
35281times
36

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-18

  • Lines in play≈ 1.7Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£655.0Kto 124k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 14lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.21

Where the money went

  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16%£103.1K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball35%£227.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball27%£175.3K
  • 5 other tiers23%£148.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.21 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

296times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 174 of each

7178times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,439 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (7, 34, 35, 36) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 January 2016 — its closest relative in 2,439 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 52% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 October 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

144

The numbers add up to 144 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 34–35, 35–36. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.3× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 2.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball32≈ 36 by chance£250
  • Match 4317≈ 464 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball813≈ 1.2k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,310≈ 13k by chance£10.00
  • Match 38,286≈ 15k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball45,553≈ 49k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball58,422≈ 58k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 8,286 winners, 46% fewer than the 15k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball58,422£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball45,553£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,310£10.00
    Match 38,286£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball813£20.00
    Match 4317£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball32£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000