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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 27 September 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 6
  3. 12
  4. 13
  5. 36
  6. 7

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 29% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,428 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-09-26All recent draws2023-09-29 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 6 12 13 36 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 27 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

28oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 28 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 8% of every possible ticket.

  • sum12th
  • odd9th
  • low89th
  • widest gap96th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread76th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 311 of each

4332times
6331times
12282times
13308times
36

Prize breakdown · 2023-09-27

  • Lines in play≈ 1.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£658.0Kto 123k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.20

Where the money went

  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16%£108.5K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34%£224.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball26%£167.8K
  • 4 other tiers24%£156.9K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.20 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

292times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 173 of each

7175times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,427 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 6, 12, 13) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 May 2019 — its closest relative in 2,427 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 September 2023): 12 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

71

The numbers add up to 71 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 50≈ 2.6 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball24≈ 34 by chance£250
  • Match 4293≈ 444 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball887≈ 1.1k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,852≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,388≈ 15k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball44,952≈ 47k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball55,946≈ 56k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 10,388 winners, 29% fewer than the 15k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball55,946£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball44,952£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,852£10.00
    Match 310,388£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball887£20.00
    Match 4293£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball24£250
    Match 50£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000