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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 15 September 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 18
  3. 23
  4. 26
  5. 30
  6. 10

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 8% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,421 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-09-13All recent draws2023-09-16 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 18 23 26 30 + 1029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

67oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 67 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 90% of every possible ticket.

  • sum47th
  • odd31th
  • low31th
  • widest gap79th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread59th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 310 of each

1306times
18331times
23302times
26321times
30

Prize breakdown · 2023-09-15

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£572.9Kto 95k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.14

Where the money went

  • Match 320%£112.2K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball29%£168.2K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball21%£118.9K
  • 5 other tiers30%£173.5K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.14 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

350times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 173 of each

10164times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,420 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (18, 23, 26, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 March 2022 — its closest relative in 2,420 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 September 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

98

The numbers add up to 98 — the 46th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 56≈ 1.9 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball23≈ 24 by chance£250
  • Match 4328≈ 315 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball813≈ 799 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,873≈ 8.5k by chance£10.00
  • Match 311,223≈ 10k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33,647≈ 33k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball39,631≈ 40k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 11,223 winners, 8% more than the 10k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball39,631£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33,647£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,873£10.00
    Match 311,223£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball813£20.00
    Match 4328£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball23£250
    Match 56£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000