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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 9 September 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 11
  3. 15
  4. 34
  5. 37
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 25% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,418 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-09-08All recent draws2023-09-12 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 11 15 34 37 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 9 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

57oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 57 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 64% of every possible ticket.

  • sum48th
  • odd64th
  • low64th
  • widest gap88th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread91th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 310 of each

2305times
11312times
15311times
34329times
37

Prize breakdown · 2023-09-09

  • Lines in play≈ 2.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£937.5Kto 170k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.28

Where the money went

  • Match 316%£150.4K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33%£309.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball25%£230.8K
  • 5 other tiers26%£246.5K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.28 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

286times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 173 of each

5179times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,417 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 34, 37) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 28 May 2022 — its closest relative in 2,417 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 September 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

99

The numbers add up to 99 — the 48th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 55≈ 3.6 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball33≈ 47 by chance£250
  • Match 4453≈ 611 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,224≈ 1.6k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball14,345≈ 17k by chance£10.00
  • Match 315,038≈ 20k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball61,968≈ 64k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball76,919≈ 77k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 453 winners, 26% fewer than the 611 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball76,919£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball61,968£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball14,345£10.00
    Match 315,038£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,224£20.00
    Match 4453£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball33£250
    Match 55£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000