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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 25 August 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 8
  3. 12
  4. 34
  5. 36
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 21% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,409 of 3,063 under them

← 2023-08-23All recent draws2023-08-26 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 8 12 34 36 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 25 August 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

45oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 45 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 32% of every possible ticket.

  • sum40th
  • odd1th
  • low64th
  • widest gap95th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread76th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 309 of each

4328times
8298times
12277times
34327times
36

Prize breakdown · 2023-08-25

  • Lines in play≈ 1.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£632.1Kto 112k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.18

Where the money went

  • Match 317%£106.3K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£197.1K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball24%£154.3K
  • 5 other tiers28%£174.3K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.18 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

288times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 172 of each

5178times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,408 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 8, 12, 34) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 9 May 2018 — its closest relative in 2,408 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 August 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

94

The numbers add up to 94 — the 40th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 55≈ 2.4 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22≈ 31 by chance£250
  • Match 4314≈ 409 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball842≈ 1.0k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,557≈ 11k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,632≈ 13k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball39,428≈ 43k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball51,445≈ 51k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 10,632 winners, 21% fewer than the 13k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball51,445£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball39,428£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,557£10.00
    Match 310,632£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball842£20.00
    Match 4314£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22£250
    Match 55£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000