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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Tuesday, 22 August 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 4
  3. 27
  4. 30
  5. 39
  6. 12

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 6% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,407 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-08-19All recent draws2023-08-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 4 27 30 39 + 1229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 22 August 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

49oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 43% of every possible ticket.

  • sum52th
  • odd64th
  • low31th
  • widest gap96th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread99th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 308 of each

1304times
4327times
27305times
30346times
39

Prize breakdown · 2023-08-22

  • Lines in play≈ 935kas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£437.3Kto 76k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.12

Where the money went

  • Match 320%£89.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£134.4K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball22%£96.8K
  • 5 other tiers27%£116.5K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.12 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

296times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 172 of each

12170times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,406 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 27, 30, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 July 2015 — its closest relative in 2,406 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 August 2023): 39 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

101

The numbers add up to 101 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 1.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball29≈ 20 by chance£250
  • Match 4233≈ 256 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball613≈ 651 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball6,867≈ 6.9k by chance£10.00
  • Match 38,961≈ 8.5k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball26,870≈ 27k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball32,282≈ 32k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈935k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 8,961 winners, 6% more than the 8.5k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball32,282£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball26,870£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball6,867£10.00
    Match 38,961£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball613£20.00
    Match 4233£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball29£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000