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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 24 September 2022

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 8
  3. 29
  4. 30
  5. 37
  6. 7

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 34% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,218 of 3,063 under them

← 2022-09-23All recent draws2022-09-27 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 8 29 30 37 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 24 September 2022 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

50oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 50 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 46% of every possible ticket.

  • sum63th
  • odd31th
  • low31th
  • widest gap93th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread81th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 284 of each

4304times
8275times
29302times
30313times
37

Prize breakdown · 2022-09-24

  • Lines in play≈ 2.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£1.0Mto 191k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.32

Where the money went

  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16%£164.5K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34%£345.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball26%£265.1K
  • 5 other tiers24%£244.4K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.32 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

262times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 158 of each

7158times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,217 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 29, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 October 2021 — its closest relative in 2,217 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 September 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

108

The numbers add up to 108 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 53≈ 4.1 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball31≈ 54 by chance£250
  • Match 4406≈ 702 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,376≈ 1.8k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16,451≈ 19k by chance£10.00
  • Match 315,351≈ 23k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball69,057≈ 74k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball88,382≈ 88k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 406 winners, 42% fewer than the 702 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball88,382£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball69,057£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball16,451£10.00
    Match 315,351£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,376£20.00
    Match 4406£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball31£250
    Match 53£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000