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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 16 February 2022

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 20
  2. 21
  3. 26
  4. 28
  5. 39
  6. 11

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 23% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,092 of 3,064 under them

← 2022-02-15All recent draws2022-02-18 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed20 21 26 28 39 + 1129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 February 2022 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

40oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 40 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 23% of every possible ticket.

  • sum92th
  • odd31th
  • low9th
  • widest gap34th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread14th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 268 of each

20270times
21282times
26281times
28269times
39

Prize breakdown · 2022-02-16

  • Lines in play≈ 1.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£604.6Kto 112k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.18

Where the money went

  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball17%£101.7K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34%£207.6K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball24%£147.8K
  • 4 other tiers24%£147.7K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.18 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

258times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 149 of each

11154times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,091 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 26, 28, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 January 2011 — its closest relative in 2,091 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 46% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 February 2022): 39 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

134

The numbers add up to 134 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 47 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 50≈ 2.3 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22≈ 30 by chance£250
  • Match 4264≈ 391 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball818≈ 993 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,165≈ 11k by chance£10.00
  • Match 39,940≈ 13k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball41,511≈ 41k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball49,258≈ 49k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 9,940 winners, 23% fewer than the 13k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball49,258£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball41,511£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,165£10.00
    Match 39,940£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball818£20.00
    Match 4264£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22£250
    Match 50£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000