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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 21 August 2021

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 17
  2. 34
  3. 37
  4. 38
  5. 39
  6. 13

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 25% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 1,990 of 3,063 under them

← 2021-08-20All recent draws2021-08-24 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed17 34 37 38 39 + 1329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 August 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

31oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 31 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 10% of every possible ticket.

  • sum100th
  • odd64th
  • low9th
  • widest gap79th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread24th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 255 of each

17246times
34269times
37234times
38245times
39

Prize breakdown · 2021-08-21

  • Lines in play≈ 2.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£844.4Kto 157k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 14lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.27

Where the money went

  • Match 317%£147.8K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£261.7K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball27%£226.3K
  • 5 other tiers25%£208.6K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.27 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

247times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 142 of each

13154times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,989 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (17, 34, 38, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 30 September 2015 — its closest relative in 1,989 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 45% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 August 2021): 37, 39 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 13 repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

165

The numbers add up to 165 — the 100th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 37–38, 38–39. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 36 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.3× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 3.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball33≈ 46 by chance£250
  • Match 4452≈ 599 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,277≈ 1.5k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,456≈ 16k by chance£10.00
  • Match 314,776≈ 20k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball52,348≈ 63k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball75,442≈ 75k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 14,776 winners, 25% fewer than the 20k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball75,442£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball52,348£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,456£10.00
    Match 314,776£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,277£20.00
    Match 4452£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball33£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000