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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 14 May 2021

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 4
  2. 18
  3. 22
  4. 36
  5. 38
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 26% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 1,933 of 3,064 under them

← 2021-05-12All recent draws2021-05-15 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed4 18 22 36 38 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 May 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

46oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 34% of every possible ticket.

  • sum77th
  • odd1th
  • low31th
  • widest gap60th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread86th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 248 of each

4267times
18265times
22255times
36226times
38

Prize breakdown · 2021-05-14

  • Lines in play≈ 1.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£643.0Kto 116k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 14lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.20

Where the money went

  • Match 316%£106.0K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£202.2K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball25%£163.5K
  • 5 other tiers27%£171.3K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.20 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

235times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 138 of each

5142times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,932 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 22, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 12 May 2021 — its closest relative in 1,932 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 May 2021): 4, 22, 38 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

118

The numbers add up to 118 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 55≈ 2.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball20≈ 33 by chance£250
  • Match 4288≈ 433 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball841≈ 1.1k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,571≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,598≈ 14k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball40,438≈ 45k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball54,484≈ 54k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 10,598 winners, 26% fewer than the 14k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball54,484£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball40,438£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,571£10.00
    Match 310,598£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball841£20.00
    Match 4288£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball20£250
    Match 55£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000