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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 12 March 2021

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 6
  2. 19
  3. 30
  4. 36
  5. 38
  6. 6

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 12% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 1,897 of 3,064 under them

← 2021-03-10All recent draws2021-03-13 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed6 19 30 36 38 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 March 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

51oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 51 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 47% of every possible ticket.

  • sum88th
  • odd9th
  • low31th
  • widest gap51th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread76th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 243 of each

6267times
19252times
30269times
36223times
38

Prize breakdown · 2021-03-12

  • Lines in play≈ 1.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£607.2Kto 109k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.17

Where the money went

  • Match 318%£109.2K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32%£194.9K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball23%£142.2K
  • 5 other tiers27%£161.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.17 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

229times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 135 of each

6126times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,896 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (19, 36, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 28 October 2020 — its closest relative in 1,896 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 March 2021): 30 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

129

The numbers add up to 129 — the 88th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 2.2 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22≈ 29 by chance£250
  • Match 4270≈ 376 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball892≈ 955 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,061≈ 10k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,916≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball38,979≈ 39k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball47,384≈ 47k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 10,916 winners, 12% fewer than the 12k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball47,384£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball38,979£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,061£10.00
    Match 310,916£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball892£20.00
    Match 4270£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000