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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 21 September 2019

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 14
  2. 26
  3. 27
  4. 34
  5. 39
  6. 3

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 23% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 1,590 of 3,064 under them

← 2019-09-20All recent draws2019-09-24 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed14 26 27 34 39 + 329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 September 2019 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

50oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 50 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 45% of every possible ticket.

  • sum95th
  • odd31th
  • low9th
  • widest gap43th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread38th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 204 of each

14176times
26215times
27205times
34207times
39

Prize breakdown · 2019-09-21

  • Lines in play≈ 2.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£984.6Kto 183k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 14lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.31

Where the money went

  • Match 317%£171.3K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32%£318.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball26%£255.9K
  • 5 other tiers24%£239.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.31 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

185times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 114 of each

3133times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,589 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (14, 26, 34, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 September 2013 — its closest relative in 1,589 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 38% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 September 2019): 14, 34 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

140

The numbers add up to 140 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 26–27. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

39 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 4.0 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball28≈ 52 by chance£250
  • Match 4463≈ 678 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,262≈ 1.7k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,055≈ 18k by chance£10.00
  • Match 317,127≈ 22k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball63,667≈ 71k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball85,309≈ 85k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 463 winners, 32% fewer than the 678 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball85,309£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball63,667£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,055£10.00
    Match 317,127£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,262£20.00
    Match 4463£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball28£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000