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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Thunderball · draw
Saturday, 4 July 2015 Result Thunderball
Single source
← 2015-07-03 All recent draws 2015-07-08 → Where this result came from Sources Only Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
Primary commercial feed 1 3 31 37 39 + 3 29 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 July 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Prize breakdown · 2015-07-04 Lines in play ≈ 2.7M as the winner counts imply Paid out £1.1M to 207k winning lines Won something 1 in 13 lines took a prize Match 5 plus Bonus Ball 0 winners chance said 0.34 Where the money went
Match 3 16% £182.2K Match 1 plus Bonus Ball 34% £375.9K Match 0 plus Bonus Ball 25% £280.3K 5 other tiers 25% £283.6K Tier 1 10 100 1k 10k 100k Winners 1 10 100 1k 10k 100k 1M Prize each
Match 5 plus Bonus Ball 0≈ 0.34 by chance Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →
103times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine Times drawn before — chance expected 60 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 843 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
£500,000
Match 5 4≈ 4.4 by chance £5,000
Match 4 plus Bonus Ball 33≈ 57 by chance £250
Match 4 493≈ 742 by chance £100
Match 3 plus Bonus Ball 1,397≈ 1.9k by chance £20.00
Match 2 plus Bonus Ball 17,807≈ 20k by chance £10.00
Match 3 18,217≈ 24k by chance £10.00
Match 1 plus Bonus Ball 75,186≈ 78k by chance £5.00
Match 0 plus Bonus Ball 93,429≈ 93k by chance £3.00 The rings take the ≈2.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 493 winners, 34% fewer than the 742 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.