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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Thunderball · draw
ResultThunderball
Jackpot£500,000
The crowdHeld 28% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 829 of 3,063 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 30 May 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 32 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 11% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 106 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 828 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 30, 34, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 May 2012 — its closest relative in 828 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 22% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (29 May 2015): 21, 34, 37 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 161 — the 100th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →39 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈3.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 1,384 winners, 33% fewer than the 2.1k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 102,310 | £3.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 71,373 | £5.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 15,909 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 | 19,384 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,384 | £20.00 |
| Match 4 | 612 | £100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 47 | £250 |
| Match 5 | 4 | £5,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | £500,000 |