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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Thunderball · draw
ResultThunderball
Jackpot£500,000
The crowdHeld 32% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 449 of 3,062 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 26 December 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 42 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 25% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 57 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 448 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 32, 36) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 October 2010 — its closest relative in 448 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (22 December 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 104 — the 56th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3, 31–32. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →3 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈1.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 830 winners, 34% fewer than the 1.3k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 62,321 | £3.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 50,730 | £5.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 11,700 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 | 11,047 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 830 | £20.00 |
| Match 4 | 284 | £100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 27 | £250 |
| Match 5 | 2 | £5,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | £500,000 |