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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Wednesday, 4 October 2023

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20233119
  1. 21
  2. 26
  3. 27
  4. 31
  5. 40
  6. 1

Jackpot€9,000,000

The crowdHeld 24% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,347 of 3,001 under them

← 2023-10-02All recent draws2023-10-07 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official21 26 27 31 40 + 123 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed21 26 27 31 40 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

35oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 35 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 15% of every possible ticket.

  • sum74th
  • odd65th
  • low9th
  • widest gap8th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread6th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 239 of each

21227times
26249times
27243times
31248times
40

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-04

  • Lines in play≈ 4.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€3.3Mto 600k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 7lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.21

Where the money went

  • rang613%€415.9K
  • rang839%€1.3M
  • rang921%€672.7K
  • 4 other tiers28%€906.4K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.21 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

243times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 235 of each

1243times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,346 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (26, 27, 31) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 12 July 2023 — its closest relative in 2,346 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 October 2023): 40 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 1 repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

145

The numbers add up to 145 — the 73th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 26–27. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

31 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€9,000,000
  • rang20≈ 1.9 by chance€220,338
  • rang330≈ 47 by chance€9,137
  • rang4297≈ 424 by chance€653
  • rang51,265≈ 2.0k by chance€91.60
  • rang616,183≈ 18k by chance€25.70
  • rang721,218≈ 28k by chance€15.20
  • rang8255,339≈ 255k by chance€5.00
  • rang9305,781€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 1,265 winners, 38% fewer than the 2.0k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€9,000,000
    rang20€220,338
    rang330€9,137
    rang4297€653
    rang51,265€91.60
    rang616,183€25.70
    rang721,218€15.20
    rang8255,339€5.00
    rang9305,781€2.20