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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 30 September 2023

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20233117
  1. 23
  2. 25
  3. 33
  4. 41
  5. 48
  6. 1

Jackpot€7,000,000

The crowdHeld 14% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,345 of 3,001 under them

← 2023-09-27All recent draws2023-10-02 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official23 25 33 41 48 + 123 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed23 25 33 41 48 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 30 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

35oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 35 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 15% of every possible ticket.

  • sum93th
  • odd89th
  • low32th
  • widest gap5th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread17th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 239 of each

23246times
25219times
33244times
41277times
48

Prize breakdown · 2023-09-30

  • Lines in play≈ 5.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€4.3Mto 771k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 7lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.26

Where the money went

  • rang613%€553.2K
  • rang839%€1.7M
  • rang921%€895.0K
  • 5 other tiers28%€1.2M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.26 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

231times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 234 of each

1241times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,344 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (23, 25, 41) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 April 2023 — its closest relative in 2,344 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 September 2023): 25 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

170

The numbers add up to 170 — the 93th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

41 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€7,000,000
  • rang22≈ 2.4 by chance€146,643
  • rang341≈ 58 by chance€1,746
  • rang4432≈ 521 by chance€598
  • rang51,940≈ 2.5k by chance€79.50
  • rang621,359≈ 22k by chance€25.90
  • rang726,797≈ 35k by chance€16.10
  • rang8313,504≈ 314k by chance€5.40
  • rang9406,824€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang7 — 26,797 winners, 23% fewer than the 35k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€7,000,000
    rang22€146,643
    rang341€1,746
    rang4432€598
    rang51,940€79.50
    rang621,359€25.90
    rang726,797€16.10
    rang8313,504€5.40
    rang9406,824€2.20