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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Wednesday, 15 September 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211111
  1. 4
  2. 22
  3. 27
  4. 30
  5. 48
  6. 7

Jackpot€2,000,000

The crowdHeld 32% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,026 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-09-13All recent draws2021-09-18 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official4 22 27 30 48 + 723 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed4 22 27 30 48 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 September 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

54oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 56% of every possible ticket.

  • sum58th
  • odd9th
  • low32th
  • widest gap62th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread91th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 207 of each

4209times
22233times
27211times
30197times
48

Prize breakdown · 2021-09-15

  • Lines in play≈ 3.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.8Mto 773k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 5lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.19

Where the money went

  • rang610%€279.5K
  • rang830%€859.8K
  • rang938%€1.1M
  • 5 other tiers22%€609.3K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.19 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

199times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 203 of each

7226times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,025 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 27, 48) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 7 December 2020 — its closest relative in 2,025 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 September 2021): 4, 30 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

131

The numbers add up to 131 — the 57th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€2,000,000
  • rang22≈ 1.7 by chance€74,165
  • rang361≈ 42 by chance€594
  • rang4353≈ 376 by chance€370
  • rang52,749≈ 1.8k by chance€28.30
  • rang615,791≈ 16k by chance€17.70
  • rang737,963≈ 25k by chance€5.70
  • rang8226,250≈ 226k by chance€3.80
  • rang9489,732€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈3.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 2,749 winners, 53% more than the 1.8k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€2,000,000
    rang22€74,165
    rang361€594
    rang4353€370
    rang52,749€28.30
    rang615,791€17.70
    rang737,963€5.70
    rang8226,250€3.80
    rang9489,732€2.20