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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 9 August 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211095
  1. 28
  2. 37
  3. 38
  4. 43
  5. 45
  6. 3

Jackpot€6,000,000

The crowdHeld 27% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,010 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-08-07All recent draws2021-08-11 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official28 37 38 43 45 + 323 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed28 37 38 43 45 + 329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 9 August 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

23oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 23 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 4% of every possible ticket.

  • sum99th
  • odd65th
  • low1th
  • widest gap8th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread4th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 205 of each

28203times
37205times
38221times
43207times
45

Prize breakdown · 2021-08-09

  • Lines in play≈ 2.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€8.2Mto 458k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 5lines took a prize
  • rang11 winnerchance said 0.12

Where the money went

  • rang173%€6.0M
  • rang89.5%€780.1K
  • rang97.7%€633.7K
  • 6 other tiers10%€812.2K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang11≈ 0.12 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

198times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each

3198times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,009 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (37, 38, 45) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 June 2021 — its closest relative in 2,009 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 August 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

191

The numbers add up to 191 — the 99th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 37–38. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

45 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 17% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€6,000,000
  • rang21≈ 1.1 by chance€135,374
  • rang324≈ 26 by chance€1,377
  • rang4227≈ 236 by chance€525
  • rang51,110≈ 1.1k by chance€64.10
  • rang610,132≈ 10k by chance€25.20
  • rang716,245≈ 16k by chance€12.20
  • rang8141,831≈ 142k by chance€5.50
  • rang9288,051€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang7 — 16,245 winners, 3% more than the 16k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang11€6,000,000
    rang21€135,374
    rang324€1,377
    rang4227€525
    rang51,110€64.10
    rang610,132€25.20
    rang716,245€12.20
    rang8141,831€5.50
    rang9288,051€2.20