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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 15 February 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211020
  1. 6
  2. 12
  3. 13
  4. 17
  5. 22
  6. 7

Jackpot€15,000,000

The crowdHeld 5% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,935 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-02-13All recent draws2021-02-17 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official6 12 13 17 22 + 723 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed6 12 13 17 22 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 February 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

21oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 21 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 2% of every possible ticket.

  • sum3th
  • odd32th
  • low99th
  • widest gap2th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread3th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 197 of each

6196times
12182times
13227times
17202times
22

Prize breakdown · 2021-02-15

  • Lines in play≈ 5.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€18.0Mto 879k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang11 winnerchance said 0.26

Where the money went

  • rang184%€15.0M
  • rang85.2%€931.7K
  • rang95.9%€1.1M
  • 6 other tiers5.4%€960.5K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10M100MPrize each
  1. rang11≈ 0.26 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

219times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 193 of each

7217times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,934 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 12, 13) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 6 July 2019 — its closest relative in 1,934 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 February 2021): 13, 17 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

70

The numbers add up to 70 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€15,000,000
  • rang26≈ 2.3 by chance€26,675
  • rang3138≈ 57 by chance€283
  • rang4743≈ 516 by chance€190
  • rang54,672≈ 2.5k by chance€18.00
  • rang626,656≈ 22k by chance€11.30
  • rang754,711≈ 35k by chance€4.30
  • rang8310,583≈ 311k by chance€3.00
  • rang9481,716€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 4,672 winners, 90% more than the 2.5k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang11€15,000,000
    rang26€26,675
    rang3138€283
    rang4743€190
    rang54,672€18.00
    rang626,656€11.30
    rang754,711€4.30
    rang8310,583€3.00
    rang9481,716€2.20