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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 29 August 2020

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20200104
  1. 15
  2. 21
  3. 23
  4. 38
  5. 39
  6. 4

Jackpot€3,000,000

The crowdHeld 11% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,862 of 3,001 under them

← 2020-08-26All recent draws2020-08-31 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official15 21 23 38 39 + 423 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed15 21 23 38 39 + 429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 29 August 2020 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

53oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 52% of every possible ticket.

  • sum64th
  • odd89th
  • low65th
  • widest gap42th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread15th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 190 of each

15203times
21177times
23199times
38202times
39

Prize breakdown · 2020-08-29

  • Lines in play≈ 4.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€3.6Mto 766k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.22

Where the money went

  • rang612%€423.6K
  • rang836%€1.3M
  • rang927%€985.5K
  • 5 other tiers25%€922.8K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.22 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

168times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 186 of each

4188times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,861 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 23, 38) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 August 2019 — its closest relative in 1,861 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 August 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

136

The numbers add up to 136 — the 63th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 38–39. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€3,000,000
  • rang23≈ 2.0 by chance€74,762
  • rang342≈ 49 by chance€1,303
  • rang4368≈ 445 by chance€537
  • rang51,988≈ 2.1k by chance€59.30
  • rang617,503≈ 19k by chance€24.20
  • rang730,410≈ 30k by chance€10.80
  • rang8268,108≈ 268k by chance€4.80
  • rang9447,961€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang6 — 17,503 winners, 9% fewer than the 19k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€3,000,000
    rang23€74,762
    rang342€1,303
    rang4368€537
    rang51,988€59.30
    rang617,503€24.20
    rang730,410€10.80
    rang8268,108€4.80
    rang9447,961€2.20