Saturday, 7 January 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 5 numbers (10, 12) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 December 2011 — its closest relative in 509 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 January 2012): 10 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 37 — the 0th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 3.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.