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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£43,202,295
The crowdHeld 32% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/12 · since Sep 2016draw 521 of 1,049 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 September 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 36 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 16% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 52 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 520 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (20, 25, 30, 38) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 15 September 2020 — its closest relative in 520 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 5.4% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (17 September 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (32% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 139 — the 63th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →30 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈5.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang10 — 10,537 winners, 37% fewer than the 17k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| rang1 | 0 | €0.00 |
| rang2 | 1 | €274,870 |
| rang3 | 0 | €42,828 |
| rang4 | 5 | €1,334 |
| rang5 | 116 | €119 |
| rang6 | 356 | €46.00 |
| rang7 | 231 | €46.80 |
| rang8 | 5,024 | €11.00 |
| rang9 | 4,915 | €11.60 |
| rang10 | 10,537 | €10.10 |
| rang11 | 27,838 | €5.00 |
| rang12 | 76,441 | €5.50 |
| rang13 | 163,015 | €4.10 |