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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£11,065,500
The crowdHeld 41% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 460 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 459 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 2 October 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 57 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 64% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 46 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 459 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (18, 21, 32) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 10 June 2014 — its closest relative in 459 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (29 September 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 113 — the 32th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →35 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈24M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 3,006 winners, 82% more than the 1.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,468,932 | £2.80 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 646,910 | £6.20 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 152,159 | £9.80 |
| Match 3 | 118,462 | £7.20 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 29,987 | £17.60 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 50,531 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2,201 | £52.40 |
| Match 4 | 3,006 | £53.70 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,306 | £124 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 57 | £3,238 |
| Match 5 | 14 | £26,366 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 14 | £79,098 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1 | £11,065,500 |