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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£12,375,000
The crowdHeld 20% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 295 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 294 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 March 2014 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 63 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 81% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 29 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 294 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 27, 44) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 3 January 2014 — its closest relative in 294 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 76% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (28 February 2014): 44 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 101 — the 20th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →22 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈20M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 1,845 winners, 30% more than the 1.4k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,074,540 | £2.40 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 486,135 | £5.20 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 130,689 | £7.20 |
| Match 3 | 79,135 | £6.70 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 25,754 | £12.90 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 33,944 | £9.40 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,797 | £40.40 |
| Match 4 | 1,845 | £55.00 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 740 | £137 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 35 | £3,319 |
| Match 5 | 8 | £29,043 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 1 | £0.00 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £12,375,000 |