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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£23,961,854
The crowdHeld 29% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 40 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 39 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 23 September 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 53 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 51% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 4 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 39 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 33, 34) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 15 July 2011 — its closest relative in 39 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 17% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (20 September 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 135 — the 59th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 33–34. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →6 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈49M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 2,337 winners, 32% fewer than the 3.4k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,540,530 | £2.80 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 834,365 | £5.20 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 315,999 | £5.00 |
| Match 3 | 103,642 | £8.80 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 58,246 | £9.70 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 55,816 | £9.70 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 3,875 | £31.90 |
| Match 4 | 2,337 | £74.10 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,308 | £133 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 85 | £2,331 |
| Match 5 | 8 | £49,531 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 6 | — |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £23,961,854 |