Friday, 8 October 2004

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 5 numbers (12, 48) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 1 October 2004 — its closest relative in 34 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 October 2004): 12, 48 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 6 repeated (42% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 87 — the 10th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.