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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Bonoloto · draw
ResultBonoloto
Jackpot€400,000
The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules6/49 + 2/49 · since Jan 2010draw 4,834 of 4,834 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 21 Sept 2026, 20:41 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 September 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 54% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 592 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 4,833 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 6 numbers (14, 21, 34, 44) with the draw of 18 November 2024 — its closest relative in 4,833 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (19 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 131 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. No two numbers side by side. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →10 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 43% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈4.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: 3 — 69,440 winners, 8% fewer than the 75k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0 | €0.00 |
| 5+C | 0 | €0.00 |
| 5 | 78 | €2,330 |
| 4 | 3,845 | €23.63 |
| 3 | 69,440 | €4.00 |
| R | 392,673 | €0.50 |