Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 6 numbers (10, 23) with the draw of 6 January 2010 — its closest relative in 17 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 February 2010): 23 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 147 — the 46th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

33 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 43% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.