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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
LotteryOracle · F-54
The Museum Built by Chance
A royal proposal, an annuity ticket and a national collection: three objects from lottery history.
1567 · Elizabeth I
A letter from Elizabeth I promoted a public lottery. The original plan offered 400,000 tickets at ten shillings, with a £5,000 top prize. The drawing was delayed until 1569 and the prizes changed.
Sources and method ↗Original schematic illustration; open the source to see the historical object.
Nominal cost (£)0.5
Chance of the proposed top prize0.00025%
The calculator reconstructs only the original 1567 proposal: 400,000 tickets at ten shillings (£0.50), with one proposed £5,000 top prize. For t distinct tickets, the top-prize chance is t/400,000. The eventual 1569 scheme changed. A full expected return cannot be recovered from these inputs; no inflation conversion is implied.
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Evidence Receipts →The maths, in plain language
The calculator reconstructs only the original 1567 proposal: 400,000 tickets at ten shillings (£0.50), with one proposed £5,000 top prize. For t distinct tickets, the top-prize chance is t/400,000. The eventual 1569 scheme changed. A full expected return cannot be recovered from these inputs; no inflation conversion is implied.
P(proposed top prize) = t / 400000; proposed gross = 400000 × £0.50
The story behind it
Lotteries financed public projects as well as private dreams. These three objects connect a royal fundraising proposal, government borrowing and the purchase of a national collection. Read each source on its own terms: a proposal is not a realised sale, and an annuity is not an immediate cash prize.