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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Exchangeability Watch
A draw is unusual when its overlap geometry differs from the history around it. Online conformal ranks turn that surprise into p-values; a predeclared betting mixture accumulates evidence without invalidating repeated looks.
MyDaY1/8 era · since Aug 202620 draws
Online full-conformal power martingalewhole-draw-conformal-martingale-v2seed 202608273 pre-declared bandwidths x 3 betting powers, all 9 mixed before inspection
For every prefix, each draw receives the permutation-equivariant score
Frequency tests look for frequency faults; drift windows look for a chosen kind of boundary. Conformal monitoring asks a broader question: does the newest complete object still exchange places naturally with those before it?
That makes it useful as a smoke alarm. It can justify investigation, but the same evidence cannot diagnose the fire. The construction follows research on conformal test martingales.
The newest score is ranked among all scores in that prefix. Random tie-breaking turns the rank into a conformal p-value . Under exchangeability these p-values are uniform, without specifying the draw distribution.
For a fixed , is a betting factor. Products of those factors form a test martingale. The watch averages three predeclared martingales, so Ville's inequality makes a 20× crossing an anytime-valid 5% alarm.