Machine A

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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

Chance Detective

Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?

Main drum: 7 of 52. Bonus balls are excluded.

2026-09-23 · UTC400 DrawsSimulated evidence

Every machine here is simulated. No real lottery is being accused or predicted.

Machine A

Read the data table

Number	Observed	Expected
1	48	53.8
2	47	53.8
3	56	53.8
4	47	53.8
5	58	53.8
6	55	53.8
7	48	53.8
8	48	53.8
9	59	53.8
10	60	53.8
11	55	53.8
12	46	53.8
13	62	53.8
14	55	53.8
15	58	53.8
16	46	53.8
17	60	53.8
18	51	53.8
19	58	53.8
20	57	53.8
21	53	53.8
22	61	53.8
23	46	53.8
24	51	53.8
25	62	53.8
26	63	53.8
27	57	53.8
28	67	53.8
29	61	53.8
30	58	53.8
31	62	53.8
32	62	53.8
33	62	53.8
34	54	53.8
35	59	53.8
36	52	53.8
37	53	53.8
38	54	53.8
39	43	53.8
40	42	53.8
41	46	53.8
42	46	53.8
43	55	53.8
44	45	53.8
45	52	53.8
46	51	53.8
47	53	53.8
48	51	53.8
49	42	53.8
50	51	53.8
51	62	53.8
52	50	53.8

Your judgmentInvestigateInsufficient evidence

Machine B

Read the data table

Number	Observed	Expected
1	45	53.8
2	54	53.8
3	62	53.8
4	53	53.8
5	59	53.8
6	44	53.8
7	44	53.8
8	50	53.8
9	50	53.8
10	55	53.8
11	64	53.8
12	67	53.8
13	70	53.8
14	50	53.8
15	57	53.8
16	42	53.8
17	46	53.8
18	49	53.8
19	55	53.8
20	55	53.8
21	56	53.8
22	36	53.8
23	53	53.8
24	60	53.8
25	57	53.8
26	61	53.8
27	58	53.8
28	39	53.8
29	54	53.8
30	54	53.8
31	52	53.8
32	56	53.8
33	61	53.8
34	59	53.8
35	50	53.8
36	61	53.8
37	54	53.8
38	54	53.8
39	55	53.8
40	68	53.8
41	52	53.8
42	55	53.8
43	51	53.8
44	51	53.8
45	55	53.8
46	49	53.8
47	55	53.8
48	49	53.8
49	53	53.8
50	57	53.8
51	51	53.8
52	53	53.8

Your judgmentInvestigateInsufficient evidence

Machine C

Read the data table

Number	Observed	Expected
1	15	53.8
2	19	53.8
3	16	53.8
4	237	53.8
5	15	53.8
6	203	53.8
7	14	53.8
8	17	53.8
9	11	53.8
10	19	53.8
11	14	53.8
12	14	53.8
13	15	53.8
14	209	53.8
15	12	53.8
16	216	53.8
17	13	53.8
18	16	53.8
19	17	53.8
20	19	53.8
21	13	53.8
22	16	53.8
23	18	53.8
24	215	53.8
25	13	53.8
26	206	53.8
27	14	53.8
28	19	53.8
29	13	53.8
30	17	53.8
31	11	53.8
32	11	53.8
33	14	53.8
34	225	53.8
35	13	53.8
36	216	53.8
37	13	53.8
38	14	53.8
39	21	53.8
40	16	53.8
41	23	53.8
42	16	53.8
43	16	53.8
44	212	53.8
45	17	53.8
46	205	53.8
47	18	53.8
48	7	53.8
49	23	53.8
50	20	53.8
51	16	53.8
52	18	53.8

Your judgmentInvestigateInsufficient evidence

Make a judgment for all three machines before the reveal.

199 independent fair histories; 3 comparisons. · chance-detective-v1 · seed 312220805

The maths, in plain language

One fixed frequency statistic is tested per machine. Independent fair histories use the same sample size and draw format. Add-one Monte Carlo p-values are corrected across all three machines with Bonferroni. The sample is fixed before testing; a non-alert is not a certificate of fairness.

E = Dk/N; Q = Σ(O − E)²/E; p = (1 + #{Qnull ≥ Q})/(R + 1); padj = min(1, 3p)

NIST · Binomial · NIST · Bonferroni

The story behind it

Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?

Knowing the generator and detecting it from a short record are different things. A quiet test cannot certify fairness.

Chance Detective

A Machine A

B Machine B

C Machine C

Chance Detective

A Machine A

B Machine B

C Machine C

Machine A

Machine B

Machine C

Machine A

Machine B

Machine C