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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
LotteryOracle · F-43
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Main drum: 7 of 49. Bonus balls are excluded.
Every machine here is simulated. No real lottery is being accused or predicted.
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 57.1 |
| 2 | 14 | 57.1 |
| 3 | 15 | 57.1 |
| 4 | 217 | 57.1 |
| 5 | 20 | 57.1 |
| 6 | 234 | 57.1 |
| 7 | 13 | 57.1 |
| 8 | 11 | 57.1 |
| 9 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 10 | 19 | 57.1 |
| 11 | 17 | 57.1 |
| 12 | 19 | 57.1 |
| 13 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 14 | 207 | 57.1 |
| 15 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 16 | 219 | 57.1 |
| 17 | 23 | 57.1 |
| 18 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 19 | 21 | 57.1 |
| 20 | 15 | 57.1 |
| 21 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 22 | 18 | 57.1 |
| 23 | 14 | 57.1 |
| 24 | 205 | 57.1 |
| 25 | 21 | 57.1 |
| 26 | 224 | 57.1 |
| 27 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 28 | 11 | 57.1 |
| 29 | 17 | 57.1 |
| 30 | 11 | 57.1 |
| 31 | 18 | 57.1 |
| 32 | 13 | 57.1 |
| 33 | 15 | 57.1 |
| 34 | 204 | 57.1 |
| 35 | 13 | 57.1 |
| 36 | 222 | 57.1 |
| 37 | 19 | 57.1 |
| 38 | 11 | 57.1 |
| 39 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 40 | 20 | 57.1 |
| 41 | 15 | 57.1 |
| 42 | 15 | 57.1 |
| 43 | 16 | 57.1 |
| 44 | 207 | 57.1 |
| 45 | 19 | 57.1 |
| 46 | 218 | 57.1 |
| 47 | 18 | 57.1 |
| 48 | 22 | 57.1 |
| 49 | 19 | 57.1 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 2 | 59 | 57.1 |
| 3 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 4 | 50 | 57.1 |
| 5 | 69 | 57.1 |
| 6 | 63 | 57.1 |
| 7 | 49 | 57.1 |
| 8 | 62 | 57.1 |
| 9 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 10 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 11 | 58 | 57.1 |
| 12 | 53 | 57.1 |
| 13 | 56 | 57.1 |
| 14 | 58 | 57.1 |
| 15 | 61 | 57.1 |
| 16 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 17 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 18 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 19 | 61 | 57.1 |
| 20 | 58 | 57.1 |
| 21 | 61 | 57.1 |
| 22 | 46 | 57.1 |
| 23 | 44 | 57.1 |
| 24 | 66 | 57.1 |
| 25 | 47 | 57.1 |
| 26 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 27 | 55 | 57.1 |
| 28 | 59 | 57.1 |
| 29 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 30 | 63 | 57.1 |
| 31 | 68 | 57.1 |
| 32 | 61 | 57.1 |
| 33 | 51 | 57.1 |
| 34 | 56 | 57.1 |
| 35 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 36 | 53 | 57.1 |
| 37 | 49 | 57.1 |
| 38 | 50 | 57.1 |
| 39 | 54 | 57.1 |
| 40 | 51 | 57.1 |
| 41 | 55 | 57.1 |
| 42 | 73 | 57.1 |
| 43 | 63 | 57.1 |
| 44 | 65 | 57.1 |
| 45 | 65 | 57.1 |
| 46 | 49 | 57.1 |
| 47 | 59 | 57.1 |
| 48 | 70 | 57.1 |
| 49 | 60 | 57.1 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70 | 57.1 |
| 2 | 67 | 57.1 |
| 3 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 4 | 44 | 57.1 |
| 5 | 62 | 57.1 |
| 6 | 61 | 57.1 |
| 7 | 53 | 57.1 |
| 8 | 60 | 57.1 |
| 9 | 49 | 57.1 |
| 10 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 11 | 59 | 57.1 |
| 12 | 62 | 57.1 |
| 13 | 65 | 57.1 |
| 14 | 48 | 57.1 |
| 15 | 58 | 57.1 |
| 16 | 71 | 57.1 |
| 17 | 59 | 57.1 |
| 18 | 50 | 57.1 |
| 19 | 69 | 57.1 |
| 20 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 21 | 47 | 57.1 |
| 22 | 62 | 57.1 |
| 23 | 63 | 57.1 |
| 24 | 49 | 57.1 |
| 25 | 55 | 57.1 |
| 26 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 27 | 60 | 57.1 |
| 28 | 51 | 57.1 |
| 29 | 49 | 57.1 |
| 30 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 31 | 62 | 57.1 |
| 32 | 56 | 57.1 |
| 33 | 60 | 57.1 |
| 34 | 55 | 57.1 |
| 35 | 52 | 57.1 |
| 36 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 37 | 59 | 57.1 |
| 38 | 55 | 57.1 |
| 39 | 59 | 57.1 |
| 40 | 60 | 57.1 |
| 41 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 42 | 44 | 57.1 |
| 43 | 51 | 57.1 |
| 44 | 70 | 57.1 |
| 45 | 56 | 57.1 |
| 46 | 66 | 57.1 |
| 47 | 55 | 57.1 |
| 48 | 58 | 57.1 |
| 49 | 55 | 57.1 |
Make a judgment for all three machines before the reveal.
199 independent fair histories; 3 comparisons. · chance-detective-v1 · seed 3951319016
One fixed frequency statistic is tested per machine. Independent fair histories use the same sample size and draw format. Add-one Monte Carlo p-values are corrected across all three machines with Bonferroni. The sample is fixed before testing; a non-alert is not a certificate of fairness.
E = Dk/N; Q = Σ(O − E)²/E; p = (1 + #{Qnull ≥ Q})/(R + 1); padj = min(1, 3p)
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Knowing the generator and detecting it from a short record are different things. A quiet test cannot certify fairness.