40

'A paposcia — the hernia

No full dossier yet for 40. The Smorfia line below is its place in the Neapolitan book of dreams; more dossiers are written over time.

Smorfia napoletana'A paposciathe hernia

Cultural interest — does not change your odds.

The reality check

What the machines actually did with 40, across every lottery this site holds a long record for.

Powerball104of 103 expected+0.15σ
UK Lotto113of 119 expected−0.61σ
EuroMillions86of 104 expected−1.89σ
SuperEnalotto165of 161 expected+0.33σ
Set for Life398of 378 expected+1.13σ

Across 5 lotteries that hold a 40, its average deviation from expectation is −0.18σ. Statistically ordinary, everywhere.

The one thing a belief about a number can measurably do is change how many people play it — and a jackpot shared more ways is worth less to each winner. That is the only real consequence, and it is arithmetic rather than folklore.