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The cultural atlas

19

19

A superstition born in 2020, and measured

✦Belgium, 2020

Nineteen is the rarest thing in this atlas: a number superstition whose birth was observed. After March 2020, players of the Belgian National Lottery played 19 significantly less than before — a brand-new cultural association rewiring behaviour within months.

☾Naples

The Smorfia, written long before, gives nineteen to laughter.

Smorfia napoletana'A resatathe laugh

Sources
  • Roger, P., Broihanne, M-H. & Hoffmann, A., “Number 19: Another Victim of the COVID-19 Pandemic?”, Journal of Gambling Studies (2022): 19 played significantly less after March 2020, from Belgian National Lottery field data and a 500-person survey.

!Cultural interest — does not change your odds.

The reality check

What the machines actually did with 19, across every lottery this site holds a long record for.

  1. 🇺🇸Powerball104of 103 expected+0.14σ
  2. 🇬🇧UK Lotto111of 119 expected−0.82σ
  3. 🇪🇺EuroMillions112of 104 expected+0.79σ
  4. 🇮🇹SuperEnalotto185of 161 expected+1.96σ
  5. 🇦🇺Set for Life372of 378 expected−0.34σ

Across 5 lotteries that hold a 19, its average deviation from expectation is +0.35σ. Statistically ordinary, everywhere.

The one thing a belief about a number can measurably do is change how many people play it — and a jackpot shared more ways is worth less to each winner. That is the only real consequence, and it is arithmetic rather than folklore.

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