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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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The cultural atlas

13

13

Feared in the north, welcomed in Spain

✦Anglophone and Nordic Europe

Thirteen is the West’s designated unlucky number, feared firmly enough that buildings skip the floor and the fear has its own name: triskaidekaphobia.

❦Spain

In Spanish lottery tradition thirteen is favoured rather than feared — the same integer, the opposite folklore, which is the cleanest available proof that the meaning was never in the number.

☾Naples

The Smorfia gives thirteen to Saint Anthony.

Smorfia napoletanaSant'AntonioSaint Anthony

Sources
  • Triskaidekaphobia in Anglo/Nordic cultures; 13th-floor omissions.
  • 13 favoured in Spanish lottery tradition.
  • Smorfia napoletana: 13 = Sant’Antonio.

!Cultural interest — does not change your odds.

The reality check

What the machines actually did with 13, across every lottery this site holds a long record for.

  1. 🇺🇸Powerball76of 103 expected−2.72σ
  2. 🇬🇧UK Lotto121of 119 expected+0.17σ
  3. 🇪🇺EuroMillions109of 104 expected+0.49σ
  4. 🇮🇹SuperEnalotto140of 161 expected−1.71σ
  5. 🇦🇺Set for Life402of 378 expected+1.36σ

Across 5 lotteries that hold a 13, its average deviation from expectation is −0.48σ. Statistically ordinary, everywhere.

The one thing a belief about a number can measurably do is change how many people play it — and a jackpot shared more ways is worth less to each winner. That is the only real consequence, and it is arithmetic rather than folklore.

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