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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw
ResultPowerBall
JackpotZAR 128,921,492
The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 1/20 · since Jun 2018draw 554 of 1,712 under them
SourcesSources disagree on this draw — Primary reports different numbers. The reading most sources give is shown.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 17 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 69% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 55 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 553 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (18, 29, 49) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 22 February 2022 — its closest relative in 553 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (13 October 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 137 — the 61th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →29 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈7.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 681 winners, 7% fewer than the 731 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 208,809 | ZAR 10.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 128,380 | ZAR 15.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 24,436 | ZAR 22.40 |
| Match 3 | 32,327 | ZAR 22.50 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,677 | ZAR 521 |
| Match 4 | 681 | ZAR 1,134 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 40 | ZAR 11,392 |
| Match 5 | 1 | ZAR 727,672 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 2 | ZAR 64,460,746 |