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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw · plus
plusPowerBall
JackpotZAR 43,636,759
The crowdHeld 36% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 1/20 · since Jun 2018draw 298 of 1,719 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:57 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 May 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 34% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 30 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 297 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 14, 38) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 10 September 2019 — its closest relative in 297 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 76% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (30 April 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 72 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →11 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈4.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: 3 — 29,407 winners, 36% more than the 22k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| 5 + PowerBall | 0 | ZAR 43,636,759 |
| 5 | 2 | ZAR 133,428 |
| 4 + PowerBall | 34 | ZAR 4,914 |
| 4 | 675 | ZAR 419 |
| 3 + PowerBall | 1,516 | ZAR 211 |
| 3 | 29,407 | ZAR 9.00 |
| 2 + PowerBall | 19,551 | ZAR 10.00 |
| 1 + PowerBall | 92,685 | ZAR 7.00 |
| 0 + PowerBall | 140,866 | ZAR 5.00 |
| - | 284,736 | — |