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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw
ResultPowerBall
JackpotZAR 17,794,005
The crowdHeld 28% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018draw 264 of 1,161 under them
SourcesSources disagree on this draw — Primary reports different numbers. The reading most sources give is shown. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:57 UTC.
PowerBall was a 5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 263 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 May 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 35 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 15% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 29 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 263 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (4, 7) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 24 January 2012 — its closest relative in 263 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 May 2012): 7 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 63 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →19 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 3.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈3.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 694 winners, 31% more than the 529 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | — |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 63,664 | ZAR 11.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 15,063 | ZAR 16.00 |
| Match 3 | 26,519 | ZAR 14.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,314 | ZAR 307 |
| Match 4 | 694 | ZAR 284 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 37 | ZAR 14,008 |
| Match 5 | 3 | ZAR 246,048 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | ZAR 17,794,005 |